The Coronavirus Vaccines Will Likely Work. Making Them Fast Will Be Hard.


The promising news that not just one but two coronavirus vaccines were more than 90 percent effective in early results has buoyed hopes that an end to the pandemic is in sight.

But even if the vaccines are authorized soon by federal regulators — the companies developing them have said they expect to apply soon — only a sliver of the American public will be able to get one by the end of the year. The two companies, Pfizer and Moderna, have estimated they will have 45 million doses, or enough to vaccinate 22.5 million Americans, by January.

Industry analysts and company executives are optimistic that hundreds of millions of doses will be made by next spring. But the companies — backed with billions of dollars in federal money — will have to overcome hurdles they’ve encountered in the early days of making vaccines. Moderna’s and Pfizer’s vaccines use new technology that has never been approved for widespread use. They are ramping up into the millions for the first time. Other challenges include promptly securing raw vaccine ingredients and mastering the art of creating consistent, high-quality batches.

“The biology of scaling manufacturing is a very temperamental activity, and there were many, many different attempts over the months until we cracked it,” said Paul Mango, deputy chief of staff for policy at the Department of Health and Human Services.

The more realistic timelines for manufacturing the vaccines are no surprise to those who closely follow the industry, even as these remarkable scientific and pharmaceutical feats have shattered speed records for vaccine development.

“They always used the same four words: ‘in a perfect world,’” said Steve Brozak, the president and managing director of WBB Securities in Cranford, N.J., who invests in and researches companies that focus on infectious diseases.

“That world does not exist,” Mr. Brozak said. “Instead, we have a Covid world.”

One of the main goals of Operation Warp Speed was to work with drug companies to manufacture the vaccines even before clinical trials were completed, so that millions of doses would be ready to go if a vaccine was successful — something never before tried at this scale.

But it turns out, it’s a lot easier to make thousands of doses for a clinical trial than to churn out millions a month. Making vaccines is a complex, sometimes finicky process, requiring sterile conditions and precise control of temperature and humidity.

At the same time, the global scramble for vaccines is straining supplies of everything from stainless steel tanks to the custom-made plastic bags that line them.

Adding to the difficulty, Pfizer and Moderna are using a technology, involving genetic material known as messenger RNA, that allows scientists to quickly adapt the technique for new pathogens. But it has never been commercially manufactured.

“Manufacturing a biological product is a science and an art in some ways,” said Prashant Yadav, who studies health care supply chains at the Center for Global Development in Washington.

The company has since updated its production lines in the United States and Europe, Ms. Rose said, and it is confident in its ability to supply about 1.3 billion doses by the end of next year.

Some companies are developing vaccines that will likely be easier to mass produce than Pfizer’s and Moderna’s, but they have paused their clinical trials for safety reasons.

AstraZeneca said it had manufactured enough of its vaccine to meet its promise of hundreds of millions of doses by January, but a six-week pause in its trial meant that it probably wouldn’t get data on the performance of its vaccine in time to win federal authorization for its use this year.

The company’s chief executive, Pascal Soriot, recently told investors that it would fill the vials once it had a clearer picture of when the vaccine, which requires two doses, could be approved. “As soon as you turn this vaccine into vials, the shelf life starts ticking,” he said.

The vaccine maker Novavax — which had robust results in early studies and said it could supply the world with more than two billion doses next year — had to delay a large clinical trial by at least a month in part because of problems manufacturing tens of thousands of doses needed for the trial. The company has a $1.6 billion deal with the federal government to develop and manufacture its vaccine, which requires two doses.

In a statement, a Novavax spokeswoman said, “There are a number of things that can slow a trial start from the ideal plan, and it’s an immensely complex undertaking.” She said the company was ramping up manufacturing around the world.

Johnson & Johnson, which started its clinical trial in September, later than its competitors, has said it is on track to manufacture 100 million doses of its single-dose vaccine by March and a billion by the end of next year. Its executives have said they do not expect trial results until early next year.

Still, even seasoned manufacturers can experience setbacks. Mr. Yadav, the supply chain expert, pointed to a shortage of flu vaccines in 2004, when a major manufacturer announced that 50 million doses, or half of the national supply for the United States, had been contaminated. “Those are risks that we will have to keep in mind,” he said.

The global race for a vaccine, as well as the pandemic’s disruption of factories and transportation, has severely taxed supply chains, causing delays or shortages for everything from glass vials to syringes.



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